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The true price of war in Georgia
Damages in civil infrastructure estimated at 1.5 to 2 billion dollars. Western countries pledging aid to Georgia – 3.5-4 billion USD
wojciech szpociński
The war in Georgia has not demolished the country’s economy, although losses are substantial. But Europe’s energy security depends on whether an upheaval may be averted.
The conflict in Georgia has resulted in a serious undermining of the supply route for energy resources from the Caspian basin. This is evident from the recent actions of neighbouring countries, which have suddenly undertaken intensive negotiations with Gazprom.
Governments of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan recently signed agreements with Gazprom on intermediation in sale of natural gas to external markets. On the other side of the Caspian Sea, the very same Gazprom is holding negotiations with Azerbaijan. The threat of a lack of supplies is real enough for Azeri Socar to stop the expansion of a gas storage facility outside of Tbilisi, which had been planned for a year.
With regards to oil, the Kazakh company KazMunajGaz is giving up on its plans to build a new refinery in its oil terminal in Batumi. This is no surprise, however. After all, it was Kazakh oil, burning on the train, which had been blown up near Gori. Images of this fire made the news all over the world. Bombs also fell mere metres away from the BTC oil pipeline. The Russians missed, but the threat was a clear one.
In these circumstances, the trans-Caspian project may only be saved by giving the Georgia conflict a genuine international dimension,...
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